Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics.
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can disp...
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The transmission dynamics of influenza in tropical regions are poorly understood. Here we explore geographical variations in the reproduction number of influenza across equatorial, tropical and subtropical areas of Brazil, based on the analysis of weekly pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality time series in 27 states. The reproduction number (R) was low on average in Brazil (mean = 1.03 (95% C...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of The Royal Society Interface
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1742-5689,1742-5662
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0659